YEREVAN, August 8. /ARKA/. Last week weighted average rate of US dollar in the stock exchange NASDAQ OMX Armenia increased by 1.24% to 367.50 drams. Volume of auctions for one week was 9.95 million US dollars which is by 68.31% less than last week. Average rate of cash dollars increased by 1.14%. On August 6 is was 369.07 drams.

US dollar rate increase in Armenia is conditioned by the increase of the demand for American currency by the population and business on the background of solution of the issue of upper level of US state debt, delay of world economy and concerns regarding dissemination of world crisis in Italy and Spain.

Next week US dollar cost in Armenia will be partially defined by the decision of rating agency Standard & Poor’s which the first time in the history reduced long-term credit rating of USA from maximum level ААА to the level АА+ with negative forecast.

The reason for it are the concerns related to the growth of deficit of state budget of the country. In this regard, renewed demand for the American currency will probably reduce to some extent. Average rate of sale of cash US dollars in Armenia will be between 367 – 371 drams next week.

Last week, the cost of euro in Armenia was defined by the events in the world currency market FOREX where the pair EUR/USD reduced by 0.8% to 1.4280.

United European currency continues to be under the pressure of concerns regarding debt problems of peripheral countries of eurozone and risks of dissemination of debt problems in larger economies of the region. The agreement obtained in the Congress of USA between the democrats and republicans regarding the upper level of state debt, supported the increase of American currency to its main competitors.

Meeting of the European regulator and follow-up press-conference of its chairman Jean-Claude Trichet did not add the optimism regarding euro. The main percent rate of European Central Bank (ECB) remained unchanged – 1.5% but in Trichet’s comments there was no clear hint for further increase of percent rate. In its result, market participants had to give preference to currency-shelters, such as Swiss frank, Japanese yen and US dollar.

ОAt the end of the last week favorable statistics on employment in USA for July allowed European currency to partially rehabilitate its positions to US dollars. Readiness of ECB to renew the program of purchase of state bills of peripheral countries encumbered with debts also supported the increase of euro to US dollar.

Based on these events, average selling rate of cash euro in the last week in Armenia reduced by 0.35% to 530.13 drams.

Next week dynamics of euro in the world and respectively in Armenia will be defined by the news of international market FOREX. Among the events in USA, meeting of Federal Reserve System (FRS) on percent rates and press-conference of the Chairman of FRS Ben Bernanke will be in the center of attention of market participants. >From the news of eurozone, final data on the index of consumer prices in Germany for July and change of the volume of industrial production of eurozone in July is worth mentioning.

If Bernanke signals about the possibility of the third phase of promotion measures of American economy, European currency will get additional impulse for increase. This week euro will also be supported by rating agency Standard & Poor’s in reducing the rating of USA. ровнем Resistance level for euro in the next five trade sessions can be 1.4550.

If macroeconomic statistics from eurozone will be negative, euro can show reduction. Recently, unwillingness of investors to take risk related to non-stability in the world financial markets can also support it. Next week, support for the united European currency will be on the level of 1.4000. Average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia this week will be between 515 – 545 drams.

Last week, average rate of cash Russian rubles in Armenia reduced by 0.45% to 13.26 drams. This was conditioned by the reduction of Russian ruble towards US dollar regarding the reduction of inclination of investors for risk and reduction of oil prices.

Next week dynamics of Russian ruble to US dollar and respectively to AMD will depend on the decision of FRS on August 9, percent rate and he mood of the players in the financial markets which are negative yet and press the ruble. If there will be any hints in the comments of the American regulator in the third phase of economy promotion, Russian ruble can renew its growth to the American currency and AMD. Average selling rate of cash rubles in Armenia in the next trade days will probably vary between 13.15-13.35 drams. –0--

Michael Verdyan, Analyst of FOREX CLUB, special for news agency “ARKA”.