YEREVAN, February 13. /ARKA/. The average exchange rate of U.S. dollar at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange last week rose by 0.05% to 388.71 drams. Weekly trading amounted to 12.05 million U.S. dollars, by 30.95% less than the previous week. The average selling rate of cash dollar rose by 0.04% to 390.37 drams on February 11.

Against the backdrop of traditionally low amount of private money transfers to Armenia during this season, the U.S. dollar’s value is likely to grow this week, however, the growth is unlikely to exceed 0.5% because the Central Bank may intervene again to support the dram. The Central Bank continues to support the national currency, as evidenced by its declining gold and forex reserves, which in January decreased by 7.09% to 1.820.4 billion U.S. dollars. The average selling rate of cash U.S. dollar in Armenia this week will likely be in the range of 388.0 - 393.0 drams.

The euro exchange rate in Armenia last week was determined by events at the global currency market FOREX, where the EUR/USD exchange rate rose 0.21% to 1.3172. However, at the beginning of last week, the European single currency dropped in value, reaching weekly low of 1.3025. The reason was the deterioration of market sentiments after Greek prime minister was unable to find a compromise with leaders of political parties on additional austerity measures, a condition to obtain a second package of financial assistance.

Another upward momentum euro received February 9, after ECB Chairman Mario Draghi stated that he would soften the European regulator requirements for commercial banks in obtaining loans. As a result, the euro managed to reach one-week high - 1.3321, but at the end of last week, the single European currency was unable to keep the achieved positions due to developments in Greece. As a result, the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia last week increased by 0.54% to 518.43 drams. We believe that on 13 February the average selling rate of cash euro will likely go downward to 515.0 drams.

The macroeconomic statistics from the U.S.- the consumer price index, industrial production and the numbers from the housing market in January, and the publication of the protocol of the last Fed meeting held on 25 January - and from the eurozone - publication of data by Germany’s ZEW institute for February, as well as preliminary data on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011, will have some impact on EUR/USD exchange rate.  If the economic statistics is positive, the euro in FOREX, is likely to rise to 1.3350. In this regard, the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia this week will be between 505.0-525.0 AMD.

The average selling rate of cash Russian ruble the previous week rose by 1.15% to 13.20 drams, due to increase in value of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and the depreciation of the Armenian dram against the U.S. currency.

The cost of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the dram this week will depend on the emerging macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and the eurozone, as well on the dynamics of oil prices. Even if the economic data is mixed, the tense situation around Iran will support the ruble. The expected decrease in the value of dram against U.S. currency this week will also support the ruble in relation to the dram. The average selling rate of cash ruble in Armenia this week is likely to be in the range 13.0 - 13.40 drams. -0-

Michael Verdyan, an analyst of t GK FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA.

The opinion of the author does not necessarily represent that of the agency.