A question form armbanks.am visitor
What are the main risks for Armenian banking sector emanating from a possible second wave of financial crisis?
Astrid Clifford – The main risks are coming from Europe, plagued with huge external debt and euro’s exchange rate fluctuations. But we do not see very serious direct risks to Armenia, as Armenian banks did not acquire Eurobonds, and, in general, the country is not so much integrated into the European economy.
The forecast 2-3% economic growth for this year, stability or a slight decline in oil prices, which is important in the context of Russia and the volume of transfers, as well as stability in base metal prices at world markets (which is the principal article of Armenian exports), allow us to think that Armenian economy and banks will not face serious threats this year.
However, we can not exclude the shock situations, for example, connected with the possible collapse of the euro or escalation of the situation around Iran, which could lead to negative consequences for the global economy, and for the Armenian economy and its banking sector.
