Armenia: Forex market review for March 19 -24

26.03.2012 14:16
Armenia: Forex market review for March 19 -24

YEREVAN, March 26. /ARKA/. U.S. dollar’s average exchange rate at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange dropped by 0.19% last week to 388.0 drams as the weekly trading amounted to $11.25 million, which was 8.54% down from the previous week. The average selling rate of cash dollar contracted by 0.11% to 389.73 drams on March 24, due to high supply of foreign currency and U.S. dollar’s depreciation at FOREX market.

This week on the background of traditional seasonal inflow of foreign currency, the greenback may continue gaining value. According to Central Bank’s weekly review, local banks sold a total of net $24.123 million at the local forex market, by 14.6 times more than the previous week. This volume of foreign currency net sales was record high since January 16 this year. The average selling rate of cash dollar in Armenia this week will likely be in the range of 387.0 - 391.0 drams.

The euro exchange rate in Armenia last week was determined by events at the global currency market, where EUR/USD rose 0.72% to 1.3268. At the beginning of last week against the backdrop of a lack of important economic news, the euro continued to receive support after the release of data on consumer price inflation in the United States Friday, March 16. On Friday, the single European currency managed to regain its position and to close the week close to its highs. As a result, the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia last week rose by 0.76% to 519.43 drams.

This week, the dynamics of the euro in the world and, accordingly, in Armenia, will be determined by news from the international Forex market. Market participants’ focus will be on U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s address at a conference of the National Association of Economists. From European news we may single out publication of data on business environment sentiments index by German IFO for March. At the beginning of this week and against the backdrop of the pending release of a moderately positive report by German IFO the EUR/USD pair may continue to grow to 1.3400. If the macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and the eurozone is negative, the euro may show a decline. The average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia will be within 515 - 525 drams.

The average selling rate of Russian cash ruble last week declined by 0.15% to 13.21 drams due to decrease in its value against the U.S. dollar and the rise of Armenian dram against the U.S. currency. The cost of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the dram this week will depend on the emerging macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and the euro area, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. The average selling rate of the ruble over the next five trading days is likely to be in the range of 13.10 - 13.35 Drams.

Mikael Verdyan, an analyst at GK FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA.
The opinion of the author may not necessarily represent that of the agency.


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