Armenia: forex market review for may 26-30

02.04.2012 13:39
Armenia: forex market review for may 26-30

YEREVAN, April 2. /ARKA/. Last week, the U.S. dollar’s average exchange rate at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange rose by 0.84% to 391.25 drams. The weekly trading amounted to 11.96 million U.S. dollars, which was 6.31% higher than the previous week. The average selling rate of cash dollar rose by 0.72% to 392.54 drams on Saturday. Throughout last week the weighted average exchange rate of the greenback showed a steady growth due to continued high demand.

This week, the USD may continue to gain value amid the gradual decline in the seasonal increase in the demand for U.S. dollar. However, the regulator is likely to intervene again to contain the national currency’s depreciation. This in mind we can forecast that the average selling rate of cash dollar in Armenia this week will be within 391- 394 drams.

At the beginning of the trading week the euro continued to grow after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke expressed uncertainty about the prospects for recovery of the labor market and noted that the current extra-soft monetary policy should remain. Friday, March 30 the euro managed to recover losses after the decision of the finance ministers of the eurozone countries to increase the anti-crisis fund to 700 billion euros. As a result, the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia last week rose by 1.32% to 526.30 drams.

This week, the dynamics of the euro in the world and, accordingly, in Armenia will be determined by economic news from the U.S. and the eurozone. The expected moderately positive statistics from the USA may support the euro. Of European news we should highlight the publication of the final data for the PMI composite index for March, as well as a regular meeting of the ECB to determine the interest rate. Very optimistic data from the U.S. could trigger new concerns about premature tightening of monetary policy by the Fed and strengthen the position of the U.S. currency. In this regard, the average selling rate of euro cash in Armenia this week will be within 520.0-535.0 drams.

The average selling rate of the cash Russian ruble the previous week rose by 0.53% to 13.28 drams due to increase in the dollar’s value against Armenian dram, and a moderate decline of the Russian ruble. The cost of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the dram this week will depend on the emerging macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and the euro area, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. Even if the economic data is mixed, high oil prices will support the ruble. The expected increase in the dollar against Armenian drams this week will boost the ruble in relation to dram. The average selling rate of cash ruble in Armenia over the next five trading days is likely to be within 13.20 - 13.40 drams.

Mikael Verdyan, analyst at GK FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA

The opinion of the author may not necessarily reflect the opinion of ARKA.


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