Dollar likely to continue growing in Armenia

11.06.2012 14:49
Dollar likely to continue growing in Armenia

YEREVAN, June 11. /ARKA/. Last week the cost of USD at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange climbed by 1.14% to 412.10 drams as overall weekly trading amounted to $33.795 million, a 97.06% increase over the previous week. The average selling rate of cash greenback rose by 1.12% to 413.88 drams on June 9, Saturday.

Early last week average weighted rate of USD was demonstrating sustainable rise thus reaching the new recording point since late July of 2006 to 415.0 drams. This was prompted by continuing demand of the investors and population for the U.S. dollar as well as uncertain situation around the euro zone. Strong U.S. dollar at FOREX market also raise demand in Armenia for this currency.


This week, due to possible ongoing strengthening of the U.S. currency at global markets the currency is likely to continue growing to 415.0 drams in Armenia. Nevertheless, the ongoing U.S. dollar’s strengthening may be hindered by the regulator’s policy to enter trades in order to support the national currency from sharper depreciation.

According to the Armenian Central Bank’s review, a total of $29.392 million were sold at intra-banking exchange market by commercial banks last week, which was 41.21% higher from the previous week. This number hit a record from a year earlier. Thus, the average selling rate of cash U.S. dollar in Armenia this week will likely be between 410 – 416 drams.


The euro exchange rate in Armenia last week was determined by events at FOREX global currency market, where EUR/USD pair jumped by 0.68% to 1.2516, as well as USD dynamics against the Armenian dram.

Early last trading week the rise in the euro quotes was touched off by the expectations that the central banks of Europe and the United States will roll out additional measures for softening monetary policy in the wake of slowdown in the economic growth. The positive economic statistics on Australia’s GDP have also improved the sentiments of the investors shoring up high revenue currencies’ quotes.

However, later that week the euro quotes faced pressure after Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke hadn’t signaled on early actions related to softening monetary and credit policy. Fitch agency that had downgraded the long-term rating of Spain to BBB with a negative forecast even worsened the situation. The continuing uncertainty around the banking sector of Spain also fostered tumble in euro quotes.

As a result, average selling rate of euro cash in Armenia rose by 2.18% to 518.77 drams last week due to fall of AMD against USD.

This week, concerns around the worsening banking situation in Spain and the European bank’s unwillingness to shore up significantly the financial sector may continue pressing euro. If Spain releases negative data the euro quotes will go on with dropping.

However, awaiting position of the investors on the eve of the elections in Greece on June 17, and the absence of economic data early next week may cause a positive impact on euro quotes.

Economic data from the United States and the euro zone may also influence the euro dynamics. Of the American data we should focus on industrial production, inflation for May, forecasted indicator of confidence reported by the University of Michigan for June, and a number of initial unemployment allowance applications for the last week. Of the European news we should highlight consumer prices index for May. The projected weak statistics from these regions may enhance the hopes of the investors for new measures related to economy stimulation thus supporting euro quotes.
In the coming week the expected fluctuation range of euro at FOREX market will be within 1.2350-1.2700. The average selling rate of euro cash in Armenia this week will be within 510 - 525 drams.

The average selling rate of the Russian ruble surged by 3.58 % to 12.72 drams due to increase in the ruble’s value against USD touched off by partial resume in oil prices and Armenian dram devaluation against USD.

The cost of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, consequently, the dram this week will depend on the emerging macroeconomic statistics from the United States and the euro zone, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. Decreasing situation around the banking sector in Spain and uncertainty around parliamentary elections in Greece may prompt further ruble drop. However, if economic data from overseas appear not so optimistic and the European statistics is satisfactory the Russian currency may advance. The average selling rate of the cash ruble in Armenia over the next five trading days is likely to be in the range of 12.60 – 12.90 drams.

Mikael Verdyan, analyst at GK FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA
The opinion of the author may not necessarily reflect the opinion of ARKA. E.O.—0–


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