YEREVAN, October 15. / ARKA /.The average exchange rate of U.S. dollar at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange last week fell by 0.79% to 405.50 drams with weekly trading totalling $9.40 million, a 47.78% decrease from the previous week. The average selling rate of cash greenback fell by 0.70% to 407.03 drams on October 20. The average rate of the U.S. dollar at Armenia’s foreign exchange market is now 405-409.50 drams. The stable situation in our opinion is due to the continued demand for foreign currency on part of importers and individuals, as well as because of moderate devaluation moods.

We believe that this week the U.S. dollar may increase slightly due to the ongoing domestic demand, as well as due to flagging euphoria about launching a new program of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The rise in the cost of the U.S. currency will also be helped by increasing volume of individual dollar purchases and by businesses. Indeed, according to the Central Bank of Armenia, the amount of net sales of foreign exchange by commercial banks last week amounted to $16.050 million, which was almost three times more than the previous week. The average selling rate of cash dollar in Armenia this week is likely to be within 405.0 - 410.0 drams.

The main reason for increase in the cost of the single European currency last week was the publication of positive economic data from Germany. The willingness of Spain to apply for financial assistance, as well as Moody's reluctance to lower the credit rating of this country also contributed to the improvement in investor sentiment. Against this background, and because of the growth of the Armenian dram against the U.S. currency the average selling rate of euro cash past week in Armenia fell by 0.06% to 533.47 drams.

This week the dynamics of the euro in the world and, consequently, in Armenia, will be determined by economic news from the U.S. and the eurozone. We expect the average selling rate of euro cash in Armenia this week to be within 525 - 545 drams.

The average selling rate of cash Russian ruble in Armenia last week declined by 0.22% to 13.33 drams, due to the higher cost of the Armenian dram against the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile the cost of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar rose slightly.

The cost of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, therefore, the dram this week will depend on the macroeconomic data from the U.S. and the eurozone, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. We expect the average selling rate of cash ruble in Armenia this week to be in the range of 13.25 - 13.40 drams. -0-

By Mikael Verdian, an analyst for Forex Club, specially for ARKA news agency.
The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily represent the views of ARKA.