YEREVAN, December 3, /ARKA/. Last week, the average weighted exchanged rate of U.S. dollar at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange grew by 0.13% to 406.53 drams with weekly trading amounting to $14.61 million, up 12.25% from the previous week. The average selling rate of cash dollar grew by 0.06% to 407.84 drams on December 1.

The U.S. dollar is still trading between 405-410 drams. As we expected, the greenback’s value over the past five trading days fell, testing the lower limit, however at the end of the week the dollar again managed to recover its losses due to the continued demand for foreign currency on part of importers and individuals.

We think the U.S. dollar’s value may increase this week due to ongoing domestic demand as well as due to uncertainty over the fiscal cliff in the United States. The increase in the U.S. dollar value will also be backed by the growing amount of purchases of the U.S. currency by individuals and businesses. Indeed, according to the Central Bank of Armenia, USD trading at intra-exchange market by commercial banks last week reached $12.521 million, which was 77% more than in the previous week. This in view we predict the average selling rate of cash dollar in Armenia this week to be within 406.0 – 410.0 drams.

Last week, the single European currency’s value was falling due to waning hopes about the final deal signed with Greece. The investors again focused on the so-called fiscal cliff in the United States which may lead to increasing taxes and spending cuts as early as in the first months of 2013. However, in the second half of past week euro resumed value growth due to macroeconomic data from the USA that boosted the demand for assets.

Indeed, the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at the fastest pace over the last three years. Thus, the U.S. GDP in the third quarter grew by 2.7% in annual terms. U.S. President Barack Obama’s statement, in which he expressed hope that the White House and Congress will be able to resolve the fiscal problems before Christmas, also added optimism. As a result, the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia over the past week rose 0.82% to 532.19 drams.

This week the euro dynamics in the world and, consequently, in Armenia, will be determined by economic news from the U.S. and the eurozone. Of US news we would like to single out data about new jobs in agricultural sector from ADP agency. Of European news we would like to highlight the revised GDP data for the third quarter.

The cost of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, therefore, the dram this week will depend on the macroeconomic data from the U.S. and the euro area, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. The anticipated weak data from overseas may push the selling rate of cash rubles in Armenia this week up to 13.20 – 13.40 drams.

Mikael Verdyan, analyst for Forex Club, specially for ARKA.
The opinion of the author may not represent those of the agency.