YEREVAN, February 4. / ARKA /. The average weighted exchange rate of a U.S. dollar at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange fell last week by 0.43% to 406.91 drams while the weekly trading amounted to $7.603 million, a decrease of 53.50% from the previous week. The average selling rate of a cash dollar fell by 0.65% on Saturday, February 2, to 408.13 drams. As expected, the Armenian national currency managed to regain its position.

This week, amid the ongoing demand for the currency from importers and the decline in transfers to Armenia, typical of this season of the year, the U.S. dollar has all grounds to grow, however, considering the possible intervention of the Central Bank to support the national currency, the average selling rate of a cash dollar is likely to be between 405.0 - 411.0 drams.

The potential growth of USD value may be thwarted by falling amount of purchases of the greenback by individuals and businesses. Indeed, according to the Central Bank of Armenia,  intra-exchange market net sales of foreign exchange by commercial banks last week dropped by 75 percent from the previous week to $3.892 million.

The cost of euro last week in Armenia was determined by news from the international currency markets.
The European single currency throughout the week except Monday grew backed by signs of improving  macroeconomic indexes of leading economies and hopes about global economic outlook.

Besides, the  euro value grew thanks to the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. As a result, the average selling rate of a cash euro in Armenia last week rose 0.69% to 558.25 drams.

This week the euro dynamics in the world and consequently, in Armenia, will be determined by economic news from the U.S. – particularly, by data on the ISM composite index for non-manufacturing sector in January, and the number of initial  unemployment benefit claims last week and from the eurozone – precisely, by  data on the PMI composite index for January and retail sales for December. The average selling rate of a cash euro  in Armenia this week is likely to between he 550 - 565 drams.

The average selling rate of the cash Russian ruble  last week declined by 0.22% to 13.73 drams, due to the strengthening  value of dram against U.S. dollar and a stable exchange rate of the ruble against the U.S. currency.

The cost of the ruble this week may increase due to expected decline of the U.S. dollar value against dram. Macroeconomic news from the USA and the eurozone will have additional impact on the dynamics of the Russian currency. High oil prices may support it as well. This in view we expect the average selling rate of cash ruble in Armenia this week to be between 13.65 - 13.80 drams. -0 -

Mikael Verdyan,   GC FOREX CLUB analyst, specially for ARKA
Views of the author do not necessarily represent those of the agency