Metal market: gold and copper prices tumble, U.S. macro-statistics is in limelight

01.07.2013 13:00
Metal market: gold and copper prices tumble, U.S. macro-statistics is in limelight

YEREVAN, July 1./ARKA/. From 24 to 28 June, the gold quotes were further tumbling amid rather negative dynamics of a week earlier.

The gold prices were pressured as the investors were concerned about the term of stimulus program. Moderately positive macroeconomic statistics of the world’s largest economy and stronger USD have also decreased the prices.

However, at the end of this period, the gold prices managed to restore, bouncing from almost three-year minimum of 1,180.22 USD per troy ounce amid careful purchased at lower prices. As a result, the gold cost fell by 5.13% to 1,233.55 USD per troy ounce last week.

Early this week, the gold prices dynamics will be uncertain, unless the market gets some definite orients. The investors will mainly focus on a number of key macroeconomic statistics from the USA : PMI by Institute for Supply Management in industrial sector, the number of new jobs from ADP and the number of employed in a non-agricultural sector for June.

We expect the US statistics to be positive, thus the USD will get stronger, and gold prices will further fall. The supporting benchmark may be 1,185.0 USD per troy ounce.

Of the European news we should highlight the final PMI for June and retail statistics for May, another meeting of the ECB and a traditional press briefing of its chairman Mario Draghi. The European regulator is expected to leave the refinancing rate unchanged at 0.50%.

If the forecasts come true, and the comments of Mr. Draghi are moderately positive, the gold prices are expected to increase. The resistance benchmark may be 1,275.0 USD per troy ounce.
Copper prices fell by 0.96% to 3.0540 USD per pound. The highest tumble was reported early last week due to worse expectations around China’s demand for it, and some technical factors. Moreover, the strong USD has also contributed to copper tumbles.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that the copper prices were teetering amid optimistic US statistics. Another driver for copper price stability was the reduced stock reserve of this asset at Shanghai Futures Exchange ( decreased by 6716 thousand tons to  182493 thousand tons).

Copper dynamics will depend on macroeconomic statistics from the USA and the American currency. The data are expected to be moderately positive. If these forecasts are justified and PMI and the number of new jobs in non-agricultural sector for June are optimistic, copper prices may rise.

If the comments on the decision of the European regulator direct to the improvements in the region’s economy, the copper prices may also increase.

However, if this statistics and the decision of the European regulator disappoint the investors, the copper cost may tumble. The expected low business activity of the industrial sector, released by HSBC and official Beijing, can also prevent copper quotes from rising. Copper prices may vary within 2.92 – 3.16 USD per pound this week.

Mikael Verdyan, an analyst at FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA news agency.
The opinion of the author does not necessarily reflect that of the agency.—0-


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