Eurasian Development Bank head refrains from making quick forecasts

22.10.2015 11:40
Eurasian Development Bank head refrains from making quick forecasts

YEREVAN, October 21. /ARKA/. The Eurasian Development Bank Governor Dmitry Pankin, said in an exclusive interview with ARKA News Agency that he would like not to be quick in forecasting GDP growth in Armenia.

As a whole, the bank’s outlooks are close to the figures predicted by international organizations, he said, but Armenia’s growth indicators in the second quarter and the first half of the year were absolutely unexpected.

“Nobody expected a higher-than-five-percent economic growth in Armenia in the second quarter and 3.8% growth in the first half of the year,” Pankin said.
It is already clear, he said, that outlooks for the third and fourth quarters will be not as optimistic as for the first six months.

“That’s why I would like not to be quick in making forecasts and I would like not to say that Armenia differs much from other Eurasian Economic Union member countries – almost all of them are in the red. Russia accounted for a 3.4% decline, Belarus for a 3.3% decline and Kazakhstan’s economy showed a slight growth – 1.7% in the first half,” Pankin said in his interview.

In its October review, the International Monetary Fund says economic growth in Armenia will be up to 2.5% in 2015 from zero growth the IMF predicted in its previous report, and for 2016 it forecasts a 2.2% economic growth.

According to the World Bank’s latest outlooks, it expects a 0.8% economic growth in Armenia. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts stagnation and the Asian Development Bank a 1.2% growth and the Eurasian Development Bank 2.0 to 2.5 percent.

Fitch agency improved Armenian GDP growth outlook to 1.5% and Moody's expects a 2.3% economic growth.

The Central Bank of Armenia raised economic growth outlook to 2.8 – 3.6% in Armenia will stand between 2.1 and 2.5 percent in 2015.

In the government budget for 2015, GDP growth is projected at 4.1% and inflation at 4% (±1.5%). -0----


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