YEREVAN, November 12. /ARKA/. The US dollar's value is being corrected in Armenia and is expected to reach its real cost exceeding 500 drams, Artak Manukyan, an economist, told ARKA News Agency on Wednesday.

According to the central bank's reports, the US currency is going up throughout 2.52 weeks, and the Armenian dram has sunk 2.3% over this period. As a result, the dollar is traded now at 482.65 drams, on average, while before that the Armenian national currency was going up.
On October 23, the dollar dived below 470 drams, to the record low in 2015, but already three days later it regained momentum.

“I told yet in September that the dram will be devaluating,” Manukyan said. “The country's foreign balance and various assessment models show that the dollar can't cost 470 or 480 drams and that its real cost should be 500 to 5140 drams.”

The economist thinks that the central bank's steps, which reduced the country's reserves, suspended devaluation of the dram.

According to his forecast, that after some stabilization connected with constitutional reforms in late November, the dollar will come close to its real cost crossing the high of 500 drams.

“Things are due to the fact that demand for foreign currencies is far higher than that for supply amid reduction of transfers and earning from exported copper,” he said. “And if the central bank stops keeping the dram’s exchange rate artificially, it will exceed 500 drams per one dollar.”

Manukyan also said that outlooks on refinancing rate and its eventual decrease on November 10 from 10.25% to 9.75% had absolutely no impacts on the foreign exchange rate.

In his opinion, the impact from US Federal Reserve’s key rate policy is more significant.

“An artificial stability was formed at Armenia’s forex market, and as a result, the country’s reserves were spent not rationally,” he said. “Things at the market might be put right by some factors, such as sharp hikes in oil prices or some rally in world prices for copper, but there were no such circumstances.”
In his words, the regulator is gradually making corrections to bring the dollar in Armenia to its real cost, but these corrections should be as smooth as possible not to strike at the poor. --0-----