Armenian banks lower their 12-month inflation forecast for 2015

23.11.2015 16:20
Armenian banks lower their 12-month inflation forecast for 2015

YEREVAN, November 23. /ARKA/. A survey conducted among Armenia-based banks revealed that they expect this year’s 12-month average inflation to be 4.3%, down from their previous average forecast of 4.7%, the Central Bank of Armenia said today in a report on its monetary policy for the third quarter of 2015.

According to the survey, conducted by the Central Bank among financial institutions and households, inflation expectations for the next year have eased somewhat, but, nonetheless, remain still high. The survey revealed also that inflation expectations of credit organizations fell from 5.8% to 4.7%, while inflation expectations of households also went down, reaching the average of 3.6%, down from the previous 4%.

According to the survey, financial market’s expectations of interest rates have changed. In particular, the financial system expects a decline in interest rates both on deposits and loans in the national and foreign currencies, which primarily reflects the latest decline trend in the market.

At the same time, the Central Bank expects the 12-month inflation this year to range from 2.5% to 5.5%. According to the report, the 12-month inflation by the end of 2015 will be at the lower level of the projected band and will continue to remain low in the coming months and then will gradually stabilize around the projected target.

In the third quarter of 2015 the 12-month inflation demonstrated, as predicted, a downward trend, falling to 3.3% at the end of September. The government’s projection of this year’s 12-month inflation is 4% and the GDP forecast is 4.1%.-0-


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