Armenia’s monetary policy to be more effective if it partially oriented to Russian ruble exchange rate

12.07.2017 14:22
Armenia’s monetary policy to be more effective if it partially oriented to Russian ruble exchange rate

YEREVAN, July 11. /ARKA/. Monetary policies of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will be more effective if they will partially be oriented to the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, the Eurasian Development Bank's Center for Integration Studies says in its report about fluctuations in foreign exchange rates in 2014 and 2015, which contains analyses and recommendations.

The center's specialists are convinced that this measure would deter exchange rates from dramatic deviations.

In 2006, the Central Bank of Armenia started ensuring price stability and pursuing an inflation targeting policy from 3% target maximum. From 2008 until now inflation is projected at 4±1.5%.

In their report, experts at the Eurasian Development Bank's Center for Integration Studies analyze consequences of the shocking fall in prices for raw materials and the monetary policy measures taken by the Eurasian Economic Union countries for stabilizing economies in 2014 and 2015.

They have come to conclusion that exactly different approaches to the monetary policy in the Eurasian Economic Union in 2014 and 2015 led to sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, which aggravated the economic crisis creating problems in trade, which could be avoided.

They also say that coordinated actions in monetary policies of the Eurasian Economic Union member countries in the future would mitigate these sharp fluctuations.

Various combinations of exchange rates able to lessen macroeconomic instability in the Eurasian Economic Union states have been assessed by the experts as well.

The results of the study show that in three of the four member countries – Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan connection of exchange rates to the basket of currencies in the current stage of integration will lead to microeconomic volatility.

In the mentioned three countries, the best indicators can be ensured by a regime, which reflects not only inflation and exchange rate of the US dollar, but also reaction to the Russian ruble's exchange rate. -0---


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