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ADB revises upwards growth forecast for Armenia to 5.2%, from 1.8%

23.09.2021 17:14

ADB revises upwards growth forecast for Armenia to 5.2%, from 1.8%

YEREVAN, September 23, /ARKA/. The Asian Development Bank has revised upwards the growth forecast for Armenia in fiscal year 2021 to 5.2%, from 1.8% predicted earlier, according to its latest Asian Development Outlook 2021 report, released on September 22.
According to the report, Armenia’s economy reversed 5.5% contraction in the first half of 2020 to grow by 4.9% a year later. This marked recovery from a low base but also from multiple economic shocks in the second half of 2020.
On the supply side, all sectors contributed to growth. Agriculture expanded by a strong 7.1% on higher crop production. Services grew by 5.3%, with increases in trade, transportation, food, and administrative and real estate services that outstripped declines in recreation, accommodation, and education services. Construction grew by 5.5%, supported by public infrastructure and private construction. Industry grew by 1.3% as gains in mining and quarrying, electricity generation, and water and waste.
On the demand side, private consumption expanded by 5.4% on higher remittances, and public consumption grew by 3.2% with higher spending on social services. Investment, measured by gross fixed capital formation, surged by 9.5% on higher government and private capital spending. With the economy recovering faster than anticipated, this Update raises growth projections for 2021 and 2022.
Inflation accelerated in the first 7 months of 2021, reflecting recovery in domestic demand, currency depreciation from November 2020 to March 2021, and rebounding global commodity prices.
Average annual inflation in the period jumped from 0.7% a year earlier to 6.1%, propelled by increases of 8.5% for food and 8.2% for other goods, with services up 1.9%. Inflation hit 8.2% year on year in July, well above the Central Bank of Armenia target of 2.5%–5.5%.
To contain inflation, the central bank gradually raised its benchmark rate by 175 basis points to 7.00% in four steps from December 2020 to August 2021. With inflation in the first half exceeding expectations, this Update raises the inflation forecast substantially for 2021 and less so for 2022.
The current account recorded surpluses in services, current transfers, and remittances, as well as a smaller deficit in goods, slashing the overall deficit from the equivalent of 8.9% of GDP in the first quarter of 2020 to 3.4% a year later. The merchandise trade deficit narrowed from 12.4% of GDP to 8.6% as a 13.3% drop in imports outpaced a 1.5% decline in exports. With imports expected to rise more than exports because of increased demand for capital goods to supply investments, the merchandise trade deficit is projected to widen during the rest of 2021.
This development should be partly offset by rising remittances from the Russian Federation, higher current transfers, and increased gains from tourism, transportation, and financial services. With increases in both external and domestic demand, this Update raises projections for current account deficits in both 2021 and 2022. -0-

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Armenian central bank revises downward economic growth forecast for 2018

28.11.2018 18:53

Armenian central bank revises downward economic growth forecast for 2018

Armenia’s Central Bank has revised downward its forecast of economic growth for 2018 to 4.6%-5.1% from its previous projection of 5.6%-6.9%

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Loan interest rates in Armenia likely to start going down - forecast

10.02.2016 17:23

Loan interest rates in Armenia likely to start going down - forecast

Loan interest rates in Armenia are likely to start going down, Ruben Melikyan, the financial director of Anelik Bank and a member of its board, said Tuesday in an interview with ARKA News Agency

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Armenian banks lower their 12-month inflation forecast for 2015

23.11.2015 16:20

Armenian banks lower their 12-month inflation forecast for 2015

A survey conducted among Armenia-based banks revealed that they expect this year’s 12-month average inflation to be 4.3%, down from their previous average forecast of 4.7%, the Central Bank of Armenia said today in a report on its monetary policy for the third quarter of 2015

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Demand for corporate dram bonds inn Armenia will be growing - Forecast

16.07.2014 18:13

Demand for corporate dram bonds inn Armenia will be growing - Forecast

Demand for corporate dram bonds inn Armenia will be growing, Karen Turyan, deputy executive director and the head of the investment division of ArmSwissbank, told journalists on Wednesday

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IMF lowers 2013-2014 economic growth forecasts

17.04.2013 13:36

IMF lowers 2013-2014 economic growth forecasts

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its projections for global economic growth, including in the United States, citing sharp cuts in government spending and the struggling eurozone

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WB upgrades Armenia’s 2014 GDP January forecast to 4.5% from 4.2%

13.06.2012 14:01

WB upgrades Armenia’s  2014 GDP January forecast to 4.5% from 4.2%

The World Bank reviewed Armenia’s GDP indicator upgrading it to 4.5% from 4.2%

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Armenia’s Central Bank forecasts 4.7% growth in nominal wage this year

17.04.2012 16:13

Armenia’s Central Bank forecasts 4.7% growth in nominal wage this year

Monetary and Credit Policy of Armenia’s Central Bank for the First Quarter of 2012 Program forecasts growth in the average nominal wages at 4.7% in Armenia

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CBA forecasts inflation in the lower level of planned corridor of 4% (±1.5%)

19.08.2011 10:44

CBA forecasts inflation in the lower level of planned corridor of 4% (±1.5%)

Inflation in Armenia by the end of 2011 will be formed in the frames of permissible fluctuation corridor of 4% ±1.5%, stabilizing at the lower level, according to the press-service of CBA.

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Forecast: Armenia’s inflation to stand at 7% this year

08.07.2011 18:41

Forecast: Armenia’s inflation to stand at 7% this year

Armenia’s inflation is believed to stand at 7% this year, Ameriabank’s development director, Tigran Jrbashyan said on Friday.

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