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ADB revises upwards growth forecast for Armenia to 5.2%, from 1.8%

23.09.2021 17:14

ADB revises upwards growth forecast for Armenia to 5.2%, from 1.8%

YEREVAN, September 23, /ARKA/. The Asian Development Bank has revised upwards the growth forecast for Armenia in fiscal year 2021 to 5.2%, from 1.8% predicted earlier, according to its latest Asian Development Outlook 2021 report, released on September 22.
According to the report, Armenia’s economy reversed 5.5% contraction in the first half of 2020 to grow by 4.9% a year later. This marked recovery from a low base but also from multiple economic shocks in the second half of 2020.
On the supply side, all sectors contributed to growth. Agriculture expanded by a strong 7.1% on higher crop production. Services grew by 5.3%, with increases in trade, transportation, food, and administrative and real estate services that outstripped declines in recreation, accommodation, and education services. Construction grew by 5.5%, supported by public infrastructure and private construction. Industry grew by 1.3% as gains in mining and quarrying, electricity generation, and water and waste.
On the demand side, private consumption expanded by 5.4% on higher remittances, and public consumption grew by 3.2% with higher spending on social services. Investment, measured by gross fixed capital formation, surged by 9.5% on higher government and private capital spending. With the economy recovering faster than anticipated, this Update raises growth projections for 2021 and 2022.
Inflation accelerated in the first 7 months of 2021, reflecting recovery in domestic demand, currency depreciation from November 2020 to March 2021, and rebounding global commodity prices.
Average annual inflation in the period jumped from 0.7% a year earlier to 6.1%, propelled by increases of 8.5% for food and 8.2% for other goods, with services up 1.9%. Inflation hit 8.2% year on year in July, well above the Central Bank of Armenia target of 2.5%–5.5%.
To contain inflation, the central bank gradually raised its benchmark rate by 175 basis points to 7.00% in four steps from December 2020 to August 2021. With inflation in the first half exceeding expectations, this Update raises the inflation forecast substantially for 2021 and less so for 2022.
The current account recorded surpluses in services, current transfers, and remittances, as well as a smaller deficit in goods, slashing the overall deficit from the equivalent of 8.9% of GDP in the first quarter of 2020 to 3.4% a year later. The merchandise trade deficit narrowed from 12.4% of GDP to 8.6% as a 13.3% drop in imports outpaced a 1.5% decline in exports. With imports expected to rise more than exports because of increased demand for capital goods to supply investments, the merchandise trade deficit is projected to widen during the rest of 2021.
This development should be partly offset by rising remittances from the Russian Federation, higher current transfers, and increased gains from tourism, transportation, and financial services. With increases in both external and domestic demand, this Update raises projections for current account deficits in both 2021 and 2022. -0-

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This is not disaster – Armenian economy minister comments on national currency devaluation

15.12.2020 17:02

This is not disaster – Armenian economy minister comments on national currency devaluation

Armenian Economy Minister Vahan Kerobyan, in an interview with Azatutyun Radio, suggested not to consider the devaluation of the dram as a catastrophe, but instead to take into account things in neighboring countries

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Global economy impact on pension funds - Amundi-ACBA Asset Management Deputy Director

29.07.2020 15:40

Global economy impact on pension funds - Amundi-ACBA Asset Management Deputy Director

Deputy Director, Fund Manager of Amundi-ACBA Asset Management CJSC Hrayr Aslanyan has assessed the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the world economy and Armenia’s behavior in these conditions

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Armenian commercial banks' lending to economy in first quarter grew to 3.5 trillion drams

14.05.2020 21:04

Armenian commercial banks' lending to economy in first quarter grew to 3.5 trillion drams

Armenia’s banking sector was quick to respond to the situation caused by the spread of coronavirus, Mher Abrahamyan, Chairman of the Union of Banks of Armenia, said today

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Former economy minister forecasts how long COVID 19 situation will last in Armenia and how many people will be infected

06.04.2020 14:40

Former economy minister forecasts how long COVID 19 situation will last in Armenia and how many people will be infected

Armenia is currently in the stage of spreading a new type of coronavirus, but, unlike Russia, it is closer to the end of this stage, Armen Yeghiazaryan, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory and Problems of Transition Economics of the Russian-Armenian University and Former Minister of Economy of Armenia, said in his article “Analysis and Forecast of the Spread of Coronavirus in the World as of April 2, 2020,” posted on the university’s website. “As of April 3, the incidence rate in Armenia was 248 people per million people,” he said

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Damage to Armenian economy from coronavirus to amount $ 1.53 billion, GDP to shrink more than 11% - former economy minister

06.04.2020 13:15

Damage to Armenian economy from coronavirus to amount $ 1.53 billion, GDP to shrink more than 11% - former economy minister

The damage to the Armenian economy from the coronavirus in the base scenario will amount to $ 1.53 billion (or 11.2% of the 2019 GDP), according to a study by Vahram Avanesyan, a former minister of economy of Armenia, published on the website of the Russian-Armenian University

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EDB: Armenian economy speeds up growth

11.09.2019 19:31

EDB: Armenian economy speeds up growth

YEREVAN, September 11. /ARKA/. Armenia’s economic activity index increased by 8.1% in July 2019 as opposed to the same month of 2018. Compared with June 2019, the figure upped by 3.4%, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) said. Konstantin Fedorov, head of an EDB unit, in charge of economic analyses, said the growth could have been […]

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Armenian economy minister discusses with World Bank representatives trade development prospects

25.07.2019 11:19

Armenian economy minister discusses with World Bank representatives trade development prospects

Armenian Economy Minister Tigran Khachatryan met with representatives of the World Bank’s Trade Promotion and Quality Infrastructure program on Tuesday and discussed with them the criteria and studies arranged yet with the previous mission

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Armenian central bank has no connection with ‘Banks, Loans, Investments and Economy’ expo

15.11.2018 14:21

Armenian central bank has no connection with ‘Banks, Loans, Investments and Economy’ expo

The Central Bank of Armenia reported Wednesday that it has no connection with the expo ‘Banks, Loans, Investments and Economy’, despite the event organizers has used the logo of the regulator

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Armenian economy not threatened, minister says

17.05.2018 18:56

Armenian economy not threatened, minister says

Armenia’s economic performance can not deteriorate to an extent as to pose a threat to the government, Minister of Economic Development and Investments Artsvik Minasyan said today

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