Dollar believed to continue its upward motion in Armenia

15.10.2012 18:32
Dollar believed to continue its upward motion in Armenia

YEREVAN, October 15. /ARKA/. The U.S. dollar has climbed 0.86% against the Armenian dram over the last week at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange and traded at 408.74 drams, on average.
The foreign exchange transactions effected there over the mentioned period totaled $18.00 million – 62.31% more than over the previous week.
The dollar traded at 409.90 drams on October 13 after it rose 0.51% against the Armenian national currency.


The increase in the dollar value in Armenia is being fueled by ongoing demand for foreign currencies here and the rise of the dollar at the international foreign exchange markets.
The American currency is still considered by market players as safe haven. In our opinion, this comes from fears prompted by the slowdown in the global economy that may impact Armenia’s economy.
There are all grounds for thinking that the dollar will continue its upward motion also this week along with the ongoing demand for the dollar.
The dollar may reach 410 drams, but the central bank may interfere in the forex market to curb this increase and deter the national currency from a sharper dive.


The lessened amount of purchases of dollars by businessmen and ordinary people in Armenia will hobble the American currency’s rise as well.
Indeed, according to the regulator, the net purchases of the foreign currency by commercial banks amounted to AMD 5,356 million last week – 57.71% less than a week earlier.
That is why it can be presumed that the dollar will be traded at 408 to 412 drams in Armenia.
The value of the euro was impacted by developments at foreign exchange rates as well.
EUR/USD there fell 0.67% to 1.2949 last week. The euro exchange rate will also be impacted by AMD/USD exchange rate.
The euro went down last week because of the returned fears of global economy prospects and concerns over things in Europe, which made investors more cautious about the European currency and prompted them to prefer the U.S. dollar.


Nevertheless, the euro partially recovered from its losses thanks to recovery in stock indexes in the United States. The opposite was seen in Armenia, where the European currency’s average exchange rate rose 0.11% to 533.77 drams per one euro last week because of Armenian drams’ plunge against the U.S. dollar.
The ongoing uncertainty in Europe and ahead of the European Union’s summit in Brussels scheduled for October 18 may keep the European currency under pressure.
Economic news from the United States and the euro zone will have certain influence on the euro.
The euro is expected to be traded at 525 to 540 drams in Armenia this week.
The average exchange rate of the Russian ruble, impacted by the Armenian dram’s fall against the U.S. dollar, went 0.23% up in Armenia to 13.36 drams per one ruble.
This week, the ruble/dollar and ruble/dram exchange rates will depend on the statistical data coming from the United States and the euro zone as well as on oil prices.
Deteriorated backdrop in the euro zone may drive the Russian ruble down. However, if overseas economic data will be below the expectations and figures from the euro zone will appear to be better than expected, the ruble may strengthen.
The Russian ruble is believed to trade at 13.28 to 13.45 drams this week.

Mikael Verdyan, analyst at FOREX CLUB, specially for ARKA
The opinion of the author may not necessarily reflect the opinion of ARKA.


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