YEREVAN, November 5. / ARKA /. Last week, the average exchange rate of the U.S. dollar at NASDAQ OMX Armenia stock exchange fell by 0.06% to 405.38 drams with weekly trading falling to $7.95 million, by 22.67% less than in the previous week. The average selling rate of cash dollar rose by 0.20% on 3 November to 408.23 drams. The average exchange rate of the U.S. dollar at local foreign exchange market is  now between  405-409.50  drams. The stability in our opinion is due to the continued demand for foreign currency on part of importers and individuals, as well as to moderate devaluation moods.

We believe that this week the U.S. dollar in Armenia may increase slightly on the wave of the continuing domestic demand, as well as flagging euphoria about the launch by U.S. Federal Reserve’s of the program on so-called quantitative easing.  According to the Central Bank of Armenia, net trading in USD at the  intra-exchange market  by commercial banks last week was $15.297 million, which was  18.60% more than the previous week. The average selling rate of cash dollar this week is likely to be within 406.0 - 410.0 drams.

The main reason behind a drop in the value of the single European currency was the publication of stronger-than-expected data from the U.S. labor market, since the statistics questioned the length of the new stimulus of the American regulator. Indeed, the number of new jobs in the non-farm sector in October rose by 171.000 against 124.00 thousand predicted. The continued uncertainty regarding the situation in the region has also reduced the attractiveness of the euro. The lowest selling rate of cash euro in Armenia over the past week fell by 0.10% to 527.99 drams.

This week the euro dynamics in the world and, consequently, in Armenia, will be determined by economic news from the U.S. and the eurozone. The expected moderately positive statistics from the euro zone will improve sentiment on the currency market. This in view the average selling rate of cash euro in Armenia this week will probably be within 515 - 533 drams.

The average selling rate of the cash Russian ruble cash in Armenia last week rose by 0.38% to 13-14 drams because of the higher cost of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar at the beginning of the week.  The value of the ruble against the U.S. dollar and, therefore, the dram this week will depend on the macroeconomic data from the U.S. and the euro area, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. This in view we expect the average selling rate of cash ruble this week in Armenia  to be in the range of 12.97 - 13.20 drams.

Mikael Verdyan,  FOREX CLUB analyst , specially for ARKA
The opinions of  the author of this story do not necessarily represent those of ARKA.